NSW lockdown to remove COVID-19 Delta strain not working, expert says

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has now extended the lockdown on the greater Sydney area for another two weeks.

It’s a story repeating itself across Southeast Asia – where countries that successfully suppressed the first waves of COVID-19 are now hit hard by the Delta variant which can spread with the most contact. fleeting.

Like Australia, countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia have relatively low vaccination rates and little natural immunity against past community transmission.

But will the same proven measures work against the much more contagious Delta strain, and are there any examples of winning?

“I think the evidence from Southeast Asia and East Asia shows that what worked last year doesn’t necessarily work this year,” said Michael Toole, epidemiologist at Burnet Institute.

“They have huge waves.”

Vietnam last week ordered nine million Ho Chi Minh City residents to self-quarantine, with people only allowed to leave their homes to buy food and medicine or in case of emergency. But he still reported over two thousand infections in the past day.

Malaysia waited for cases to exceed 7,000 cases per day before implementing an equally strict measure six weeks ago, but it has barely reduced the rate of new infections.

Cases in Thailand had also reached thousands by the time authorities decided to put Bangkok under curfew and shut down non-essential stores.

Daily infection rates in Sydney are currently only hovering around the 100 mark, but Professor Toole believes the same mistakes are being made.

“Sydney, Bangkok, Phnom Penh are all in the same boat – facing the same variant of the virus and all initially hesitant to go into full lockdown,” he said.

“Even the best of them, Vietnam is in trouble because what they were counting on last year, namely rapid testing and tracing and selective lockdowns, just won’t work this time around as the virus breaks down. spread too quickly.

He said the best examples of how to fight Delta are closer to home – the short, severe lockdowns that canceled the recent variant outbreaks in Perth, Brisbane and Darwin.

The three cities imposed strict restrictions as soon as only a few cases were detected.

Professor Toole argues it’s not too late for NSW to shut down the virus, but it needs a Melbourne-style lockdown with non-essential stores closed and people’s travel limited to a three-mile radius of their home.

Newly released modeling from the Burnet Institute suggests that in six weeks there will still be 40 cases per day in Sydney if it stays under existing lockdown measures.

But that would drop to less than five cases per day if Sydney moved to a Melbourne-style hard lockdown.

Prime Minister Gladys Berejiklian on Wednesday rejected suggestions that her government should model its response on the Victoria lockdown in 2020.

“It’s really hard to compare apples and oranges given the Delta strain and the longer lockdown period in Victoria,” she said.

“The Victorian government has waited a lot longer than we have to get into the foreclosure situation, but I don’t think it’s fair to compare.”

“We think we have the right balance here.”

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